London Playbook PM: Starmer stubs out smokers

Good afternoon. This is Andrew McDonald.
— Keir Starmer opted not to pooh-pooh suggestions he might ban smoking in beer gardens, and hospitality groups and right-wingers aren’t happy. 
— Tom Tugendhat restarted the Tory leadership race with a speech of two halves.
— The Conservative contender announced his plans for a legal migration cap. 
— The Lib Dems and Tories are now both hoping to force votes on the government’s winter fuel allowance cuts.
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PUFF DAY: Keir Starmer might have spent his morning meeting Britain’s Paralympic heroes and his late morning chatting to his French pal Emmanuel Macron — but a good old fashioned rammy about where Brits are allowed to smoke is dominating the non-smoking rooms of Westminster.
From the PM’s mouth: “We are going to take decisions in this space. More details will be revealed, but this is a preventable series of deaths and we’ve got to take the action to reduce the burden on the NHS and reduce the burden on the taxpayer,” Starmer told broadcasters in Paris when asked very specifically about overnight reports that he is considering stricter rules on outdoor smoking. Worth remembering Starmer promised to “tread more lightly” on Brits’ lives in his first No. 10 speech.
It’s a talker: The Sun’s Jack Elsom revealed the plans — to be included in the Tobacco and Vapes Bill left over by Rishi Sunak’s government — overnight. New restrictions could include bans on smoking in beer gardens … outside restaurants … and even outside nightclubs, otherwise known as “smoking areas.” The plans are backed by health experts as a way of freeing up pressure on the NHS. 
Such a talker that … speculation about an EU youth mobility scheme has died down today — despite German Ambassador Miguel Berger doing his best to keep the mooted scheme alive on the Today program this morning. Given Starmer and his team have cool feelings toward such a scheme, the focus on more measures to crack down on smoking is arguably helpful for the government — especially given the British public tend to really love banning things.
Nation of nannies: “It is worth remembering that when it comes to measures on public health be it lockdown, junk food or Sunak’s smoking ban the public are often willing to be far more authoritarian than commentators and politicians,” focus group firm More in Common’s Luke Tryl said. “There simply isn’t an anti-nanny state caucus among the public.”
Case in point: More in Common’s polling found that over two thirds of adults supported Rishi Sunak’s phased smoking ban, compared to 22 percent who were opposed. “We joke that if you put ban in a poll question it automatically boosts support 20 percent,” Tryl adds.
Right on cue: A snap YouGov poll found that a majority of Brits support banning smoking in pub gardens and outdoor restaurants, by 58 percent to 35 percent. 
But either way: Public opinion isn’t all that matters — and lots of libertarian opposition politicians and folks who care about the hospitality industry aren’t happy about the mooted plans. “This needs to be thought through very carefully before we damage businesses and economic growth and jobs,” Kate Nicholls, UK Hospitality boss, told the BBC.
Piling in: Tom Tugendhat, speaking at his Tory leadership semi-launch earlier (more on that below), hit out at the plans — joining most of the contenders who have been hawking their anti-nanny credentials all day. “My own view is if you are not doing something that is harmful to others then frankly you should be allowed to do what you like,” Tugendhat said. 
FYI: Tugendhat was among the Tories who voted to ban smoking everywhere for the next generation — arguably a much more hardline anti-smoking intervention. His other contenders had more mixed views on Rishi Sunak’s flagship bill (that he ran out of time to enact because he called an election). Cleverly and Stride joined Tugendhat in voting for the smoking ban, while Jenrick and Badenoch voted against. Priti Patel abstained.
Not convinced either: A Lib Dem official — remember the Lib tends to stand for “liberal” — told Playbook PM the government “must get the balance right and not risk further hampering our hospitality sector which is still recovering from the pandemic.”
And in unsurprising news: Benson and Hedges super-fan Nigel Farage went further than everyone else and suggested he’d never go to a pub again if this happened. Can the hospitality industry survive without five-pints-Farage?
TOM OF TWO HALVES: Tory leadership contender Tom Tugendhat effectively delivered two different speeches as he sort-of-launched his campaign this afternoon. One was more interesting than the other.
Almost had us in the first half: For almost 20 minutes Tugendhat talked in vague terms about the Labour government and the “1970s socialism” he feels is being inflicted on the U.K. Playbook PM plus an audience of about 50 hacks, activists and at least one supportive MP (Karen Bradley) watched on in silence in a sort of mini-lecture hall at a location that could only loosely be described as “in Westminster.”
Tommy Gun: Speaking from a lectern flanked by Union Jacks — in what seemed to be a bit of an imitation of the prime minister — Tugendhat offered some praise for his party’s record in government, and then swiftly moved on to attacking Labour on everything from schools … to fiscal policy … to union pay deals … to apparent centralization. It went on a bit.
In one moment of interest: Tugendhat hit out at the march of “cultural Marxism,” which he said “puts the system over the human forgetting that the government should serve the people and not force us into a system convenient for itself.” Other Conservatives have been criticized in the past for using “cultural Marxism” term, which has been linked to far-right antisemitic conspiracy theories — though there is debate about the phrase. Tugendhat’s camp declined to comment on the record when approached by Playbook PM.
After that jazz: It got a bit more interesting as Tugendhat started talking about population growth — and came armed with an actual policy. He announced that as PM he would institute a legally binding migration cap of 100,000. “We need to have an honest conversation [about migration]. Numbers matter,” he said.
Which raises the obvious question … of what happens to sectors like social care and hospitality which rely on labor from abroad. Tugendhat argued that we need to “rethink the economy” — and pointed to his hopes to reform public services. He admitted that will take “many years.”
Understatement of the day: “I’ve covered a lot of ground today and I’ve deliberately talked in terms of principles more than policies,” Tugendhat said. “Because, following our election defeat, my party has a lot of listening to do.”
Listening, but not enjoying it: “Just a boring low-energy rip-off of other candidates’ messaging delivered from a lectern thats too big for him with a reading tone like he’s telling a bedtime story to his children. Weird,” a rival Tory leadership camp sniped to Playbook PM. Don’t hold back, guys.
PITCH PLEASE: The LGBT Conservatives gave Tory leadership candidates until midnight Wednesday to submit policy proposals to their membership, my colleague Bethany Dawson writes in. It was not a full house when the clock struck 12, with responses received from Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat, Mel Stride, and Priti Patel. All quiet on the Cleverly and Jenrick front.
More leadership fun to come: Fellow contenders Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, Kemi Badenoch and James Cleverly all have similar leadership events planned over the next few days to try and generate some momentum heading into the first vote among MPs next week.
TRAIN TALK: Speaking to Channel 4 from the Paralympics in Paris, Keir Starmer said it is a “basic requirement” that trains are accessible to people with disabilities, and confirmed that accessibility will be part of Labour’s rail reforms. His comments come after crossbench peer and former Paralympian Tanni Grey-Thompson had to crawl off a train after she was not met by assistance staff. The full interview airs at 7 p.m.
COMING DISSATISFACTIONS: The Lib Dems are planning to force a vote on the government’s cut to winter fuel payments for pensioners, Ed Davey revealed this morning. The party is tabling a “prayer motion” and, according to a Lib Dem official, seeking cross party support in order to secure a vote when parliament returns from recess next week.
If they do get the vote … it will present an awkward moment for the Labour backbenchers who are feeling anxious about the move to a means-tested payment, even if there’s no prospect of the government actually losing the vote.
Hold up a minute! The Tories sent out a curt press release pointing out that they’ve already tabled their own prayer motion on the winter fuel payments and that the Lib Dems should back theirs. The Lib Dems accept their motions are pretty much the same, but reckon theirs — coming from the large third party with similar politics to Labour — carries more weight than the Tory one. Opposition is very glamorous.
ANOTHER LOOMING PROBLEM: The number of people who have crossed the Channel in small boats passed 20,000 for the year to date, new Home Office stats revealed. 614 people were brought ashore yesterday alone. The Home Office argued its new Border Security Command — which is still without a boss — will help bring the numbers down.
CRONYISM CONCERNS: Starmer’s response to the growing cronyism scandal is going down like a lead balloon with transparency campaigners, my colleague John Johnston reports in his unmissable London Influence newsletter today.
Ooft: “It’s utterly and depressingly short-sighted,” says Sue Hawley, executive director of campaign group Spotlight on Corruption. “You can’t promise to eradicate cronyism and then come in and appoint your mates, allies and donors to key civil service roles that are meant to be impartial.”
Plus: Former Tory MP John Penrose, the last person to hold the post of Anti-Corruption Champion back in June 2022 also urged Starmer to get on with appointing a successor. “Lofty words and good intentions aren’t enough, you’ve got to act too,” he says.
ROSEBANK … TANKED? The U.K. government won’t challenge legal action launched by climate campaigners against the Rosebank oil field, it confirmed today. That doesn’t mean the oil field won’t go ahead, and oil firms are still working out what their next steps are as they prepare for court. More here for POLITICO energy and climate pros.
TWO DAYS OF RECESS TO GO: Candidates for the Scottish Tory leadership are mad about Starmer — according to biographer Tom Baldwin — removing a portrait of Margaret Thatcher from his No. 10 study. More from the Herald’s Andrew Learmonth here.
COLUM AND GOING: SDLP boss Colum Eastwood is quitting after 14 years, he confirmed in a press conference earlier. He named MP Claire Hanna as his preferred successor.
HENDY’S OYSTERS: There’s plenty of follow-up to Jon Stone’s POLITICO scoop about Rail Minister Peter Hendy, who helped get an engineer sacked for raising safety concerns. You know it’s landed when the rail enthusiasts are making memes.
MIDDLE EAST LATEST: The Israeli military said it had killed five Palestinian fighters inside a mosque in the West Bank city of Tulkarm. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called on Israel to halt its operation, saying it was “fueling an already explosive situation” — via the BBC. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meanwhile said there could be a partial suspension of military operations in Gaza so children can receive polio vaccinations. The Guardian has a writeup.
ACROSS THE POND: Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris registered 45 percent to former President Donald Trump’s 41 percent in an Ipsos poll for Reuters, putting her up one point from the last poll in July and showing increased support among women and Hispanic voters. Harris faces her first unscripted interview since taking incumbent Joe Biden’s place on the ticket alongside running mate Tim Walz on CNN at 2 a.m. U.K. time.
No thank you for the music: Trump meanwhile faced his own Waterloo moment after ABBA refused to take a chance on him and demanded their tracks aren’t played at his campaign rallies. The Swedish pop group’s record company said no “permission or license has been granted” after tracks including, you’ve guessed it, “The Winner Takes It All” and “Money, Money, Money” were blasted out at an event in July. My colleague Ketrin Jochecová has more on the band’s SOS call.
IN HONG KONG: A court convicted two journalists — Chung Pui-kuen and Patrick Lam — and their website Stand News of sedition in the first such case since Hong Kong was handed over to China in 1997. More in the Times.
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LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) leads on an investigation into homelessness in Scotland … BBC News at Six focuses on the government’s proposals to ban smoking in outdoor venues … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) has an interview with Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Paris as part of the broadcaster’s coverage of the Paralympics.
Ben Kentish at Drive (LBC, until 7 p.m.): Former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Michael Saunders (5.05 p.m.) … Children’s Society Executive Director of Social Impact Joe Jenkins (6.05 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): More in Common’s U.K. Director Luke Tryl … former Kamala Harris speechwriter Dave Cavell … Children’s Society CEO Mark Russell … National Association for Pastoral Care in Education Chair Phil Jones … APCO Worldwide’s Jo Tanner and Labour adviser Matthew Torbitt (from 6 p.m.).
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Youth Justice Board Chair Keith Fraser.
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Action on Smoking and Health Chief Executive Deborah Arnott and unaffiliated peer Claire Fox (both 5.30 p.m.).
The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Author of Truss at 10 Anthony Seldon.
Sky News Daily (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): UK Hospitality CEO Kate Nicholls … NHS Confederation Director of Policy Layla McCay.
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Reform UK Chair Zia Yusuf … former Labour adviser Scarlett MccGwire.
Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Former Labour MP George Howarth … former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Tory leadership contender Robert Jenrick … Tory peer Paul Goodman.
Newsnight (BBC Two, 10.30 p.m.): Democratic strategist Ameshia Cross.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Neil Henderson.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): The New Statesman’s Rachel Cunliffe and HuffPost’s Kevin Schofield … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Mirror’s Susie Boniface and the Telegraph’s Annabel Denham.
NAT POST-MORTEM: The SNP kicks off its conference in Edinburgh with an internal review of what went wrong in the election. Just read our primer, lads!
SITTING PRITI: Tory leadership contender Priti Patel is giving a speech in Westminster.
TRAVELING MINISTERS: Europe Minister Stephen Doughty is off to the GLOBSEC forum — the eastern European security community, it says here.
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: It’s recess! Have a stroll around the estate to figure out your lunch plans.
CONGRATS TO … the FT’s John Burn-Murdoch, who — in his own words, to be very clear — took a brief break from making charts to make a human.
New gig: KC Catherine Smith has been appointed as the new Advocate General for Scotland — meaning she will advise the U.K. government on Scots law.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: John McCain named Sarah Palin as his running mate on this day in 2008 — marking the first and to date only time a woman has appeared on the Republican presidential ticket.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Dan Bloom.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporters Noah Keate and Bethany Dawson, plus the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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